Europe’s used-car residual values are expected to keep easing through 2026 as markets normalise from the 2021–23 peak, with widening regional variation. Autovista24’s analysts flagged longer days-to-sell, especially for BEVs, and pointed to Italy as the biggest downside outlier, while most Western markets see only modest falls.
Autovista24’s webinar “2026 residual value outlook: Regional shifts and trends” (21 January 2026) set out how Europe’s used-car pricing is normalising after the post-pandemic peak, and why regional differences, powertrain mix and macroeconomic headwinds still matter for 2026. The session was chaired by Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus, with Ana Azofra, regional head of valuations for Southwest Europe, Robert Madas, regional head of valuations for Central and Eastern Europe, and Ulmis Horchidan, cluster head of valuations for Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Slovakia, Czechia and Hungary discussing what is shaping residual values (RVs) across key markets.
Macroeconomic backdrop: slower growth, easing inflation, cautious demand
The panel framed 2026 against a cooling global outlook. OECD projections highlighted resilient growth in 2025, but a slowdown in 2026, followed by a modest re-acceleration in 2027, a pattern that can keep consumer confidence fragile and financial conditions tight for big-ticket purchases like cars.
On inflation, the ECB’s latest staff projections (published with its 18 December 2025 decision) point to euro area headline inflation averaging 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 (after 2.1% in 2025), indicating continued disinflation but not an immediate return to pre-COVID price stability in household budgets.
Autovista’s speakers argued that this environment continues to put pressure on the automotive market, even as demand stabilises. Madas noted that new-car registrations were up around 1.5% versus 2024, suggesting the steep post-COVID declines have eased, “but it is not a spectacular recovery,” he said.
Residual values: normalisation continues, but at a slower pace
Autovista24’s recap of the webinar shows RVs (tracked as % of retained list price) kept falling through 2025, continuing the “normalisation” from the unusually high 2021–2023 period. The key message for 2026 is that the decline is expected to persist, but generally at a more measured pace than in 2024.
A key operational signal discussed was days-to-sell: vehicles are spending longer in stock, pointing to saturation risks across powertrains. Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) were highlighted as taking the longest time to sell, followed by plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), with dealers needing more active “price management” on electrified stock than on other drivetrains.
Azofra described the outlook as broadly stable and “on a path towards normalisation”, arguing the biggest corrections have largely already occurred over the past two years.
Market-by-market forecasts: Italy the standout downside risk
Autovista’s 2026 outlook (36 months/60,000km benchmark) keeps most Western European markets within relatively tight bands. Austria, France, Spain and the UK were described as likely to see at most around a 1% %RV decline by the end of 2026. Germany’s forecast was close, at around 1.4%.
Italy was the outlier: after a severe downturn in 2025, the market was forecast to see a 5.2% %RV decline in 2026, making it the most negative major-market outlook discussed in the session.
Central and Eastern Europe: imports and “catch-up” economics shape pricing
The panel stressed that Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) cannot be treated as one market. Autovista24’s write-up points to structural drivers, including higher growth rates than in Western Europe (the “catch-up effect”) and a heavy reliance on used-car imports, with Germany a key source market that influences pricing dynamics, particularly for older vehicles.
Horchidan flagged that countries have adjusted differently from the 2022 supply-crisis peak, citing steeper depreciation in Hungary and Slovakia, while Romania and Czechia recovered faster once supply caught up. For 2026, CEE outlooks were described as unchanged, with ongoing but moderating declines. For example, Croatia, Czechia, Slovenia and Romania were forecast to see around 2.0%–2.3% drops, while Poland, Hungary and Slovakia were not expected to exceed around 1.6%.
What this means for auto recyclers
For vehicle recyclers, RV trends are not just a remarketing story; they feed directly into write-off rates, salvage mix, and parts demand.
Total-loss economics: When used values soften, insurers can reach the “uneconomical to repair” threshold faster, potentially increasing the flow of late-model salvage into dismantling channels. The webinar’s point about BEVs taking longer to sell, and requiring more price management, is relevant because weaker EV used pricing can raise the likelihood of EV total losses after damage, shifting dismantlers’ intake towards higher-voltage vehicles.
Stock saturation and repair behaviour: Longer days-to-sell and household budget pressure tend to support keep-and-repair behaviour in parts of the market. That can underpin demand for quality used parts (“green parts”), even if used-car retail is price-sensitive. (This is an operational implication rather than a direct webinar claim.)
Cross-border flows: The CEE reliance on imports from Western Europe remains a key driver of where vehicles end up as they age, affecting when and where ELVs (end-of-life vehicles) surface. If Western Europe sees continued RV declines while CEE markets remain structurally import-dependent, recyclers should watch how trade flows influence ELV timing, vehicle age profiles and parts-harvesting opportunities.
Overall, the Autovista24 session suggests 2026 will be less about sudden pricing shocks and more about steady normalisation, with clear exceptions (Italy) and significant regional variation. For recyclers, the practical takeaway is to plan for a salvage pipeline that may become more price-sensitive, more electrified, and more regionally uneven, with profitability increasingly tied to efficient dismantling, accurate grading, and strong routes to market for parts and materials.
Autovista Group’s next webinar, Europe’s auto forecast 2026: Technology, policy, and EV adoption, will take place on 1 April 2026 at 09:30 GMT.
Sources: www.youtube.com www.autovista24.autovistagroup.com/news
Further Reading on Auto Recycling World
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