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Global battery recycling volumes to rise sharply after 2030 – New data from CES

New updated battery volume report from Circular Energy Storage (CES):

Global battery recycling volumes to rise sharply after 2030

Recycled feedstock will still make up less than 12% of the demand in 2035

Volumes of batteries available for reuse in 2035 will be larger than the entire lithium-ion battery market in 2020.

Global battery recycling volumes to rise sharply after 2030 – New data from CES p m

The London-based consultancy Circular Energy Storage has been tracking end-of-life volumes of lithium-ion batteries since 2017. This year’s update is the first to include a forecast going beyond 2030 with a detailed analysis until 2035. The data shows several notable developments which will have a big impact on the end-of-life market:

 

  • While the growth of end-of-life batteries only will marginally increase in the next decade with a 25.4% CAGR 2030-2035 compared to 23.5% 2020-2030, the growth rate of batteries available for recycling will increase from 18.9% to 28.4%.
  • The share of end-of-life batteries from light electric vehicles that will be available for recycling instead of reuse will increase from 27% in 2023 to 79% in 2035. Between 2030 and 2035 the global volume of light electric vehicle batteries available of recycling will increase by 343%.
  • Still, the global volume of lithium-on batteries available for reuse will increase from 23.3 GWh in 2023 to 376.1 GWh in 2035 bringing the market to a size which is larger than the whole lithium- ion battery market in 2020.
  • Batteries from light EVs, which in 2023 made up only 12.3% of the global end-of-life volumes, will in 2035 make up 50.2% of batteries that either will be reused or recycled. This is followed by personal mobility (2- and 3-wheelers) at 14.0%, heavy electric vehicles at 11.3%, stationary energy storage systems at 9.3% and batteries for backup power and UPS at 6.5%.
Global battery recycling volumes to rise sharply after 2030 – New data from CES p
Hans Eric Melin

Hans Eric Melin, managing director of Circular Energy Storage, comments:

“We are seeing the effect of the first larger volumes of electric vehicles that will reach end of life at scale. A significant share of these vehicles will be over 15 years old with batteries that we estimate will have difficulties to attract buyers on the reuse market as they face the competition of large volumes of end-of-life batteries from much younger vehicles as well as new batteries at much lower price points.”

The reuse market is still expected to grow significantly, not least for stationary energy storage and heavy vehicles, where operators can take advantage of falling battery prices and improved battery technology. They can thereby optimise the decommissioning for better performance and higher second use value through early replacements. Batteries from light electric vehicles are also expected to continue to have high reuse rates when they are fairly new, not least on the replacement market. The size of the repurposing market will largely depend on the size and number of players that are able to create value from the available volumes.

Despite the rapidly increasing volume of batteries available for recycling the global share of recycled materials that can be used in production of new batteries is estimated to reach only 12.1% in 2035. The reason is the rapidly growing battery market which is expected to continue its expansion in all existing segments while other emerging applications such as rail, long-distance shipping and aviation will generate additional growth.

There are also big geographical differences with less recycled material available both in Europe and United States where 9.9% and 8.1% of the market’s demand respectively can be met with recycled end-of-life batteries in 2035. This is mainly due to export of electric vehicles and other applications which has a negative effect on the end-of-life battery volumes. The addition of scrap from battery production, a very important feedstock for recyclers, increases the share to 12.9% in Europe and to 11.4% in the United States.

“Production scrap is and will remain being an important feedstock for recyclers and in Europe it may help material producers to meet the requirements of recycled content in batteries that will be placed on the EU market. However from a resource perspective it’s a zero sum game as it doesn’t add any new resources to the supply chain but only recirculate a part of the material. Also, low scrap rates and high yield is already today a key differentiator of battery producers which drive down the overall scrap rates as volumes rise” says Hans Eric Melin.

“The challenge for recyclers is to build a strong position when volumes still are low to be able to profit from it when more feedstock will be available. We recommend more integrated business models with a high upstream service level which can generate revenues in today’s markets or downstream operations with ability to process diverse feedstocks”, concludes Hans Eric Melin.

The data is available for subscribers to CES Online, Circular Energy Storage’s data platform.

About the data

Circular Energy Storage’s data and analysis is based on more then 15 years of experience of the battery end-of-life industry and market data collected since 2010. This is the 8th annual forecast. The analysis starts with data on global volumes of lithium-ion batteries placed on the market since 2000. Using continuous research on how batteries are used, reused and recycled battery applications are tracked with individual export, end-of-life and reuse rates year by year. Data for electric vehicles is based and individual cell and pack data for every car model placed on the various markets analysed. Key indicators used for the volume forecast are lifecycles of batteries and battery containing applications, prices of used batteries and battery materials, as well as current and future available capacity to reuse or recycle batteries. These indicators are also published by Circular Energy Storage as separate datasets.

More information about the data: www.circularenergystorage-online.com

For more information, please contact: Hans Eric Melin on +44 775 692 7479, or email: hanseric@circularenergystorage.com

Please visit www.circularenergystorage.com

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