As electric vehicle (EV) sales continue their rapid global ascent, a parallel transformation is underway that could define the next decade of auto recycling: the surging cross-border trade of secondhand EVs. Insights from a recent UC Davis webinar featuring Dr. Alissa Kendall and Dr. Francisco Posada reveal a shifting landscape for recyclers, regulators, and policymakers, one where EV battery life cycles, international vehicle flows, and recycling infrastructure are becoming deeply interwoven.
Unprecedented EV Growth, Global Implications
Between 2020 and 2023, global electric vehicle (EV) sales increased by over 400%. China leads the charge, followed by the European Union and the United States. However, as EVS age and are deregistered from their original markets, many are finding new lives in countries with less developed infrastructure for battery reuse or recycling. This emerging dynamic is reshaping how stakeholders must think about vehicle life cycles.
Crucially, projections suggest that by 2035, up to 2 million EVs may be traded internationally as secondhand units, rising to 8 million by 2050. This represents not just a vehicle export trend, but a tidal wave of battery material, an estimated 2 to 4 million tons, that will require thoughtful end-of-life management.
Secondhand Trade: Benefits and Risks
On one hand, secondhand EVs can democratize access to electric mobility, helping countries in the Global South decarbonize their fleets while benefiting from cleaner air. However, these vehicles often arrive with reduced battery life, limited charging infrastructure, and no viable end-of-life solutions for battery disposal or recycling.
Dr. Kendall emphasized that while internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles can often be repaired and maintained locally, secondhand EVs require more specialized knowledge and components, posing unique service and maintenance challenges.
In countries like Kenya and Mexico, used EVs are accumulating in informal storage lots once their batteries are depleted. In some cases, as seen in Tijuana, improper charging setups have even led to fires, an ominous warning of the safety risks of unmanaged EV battery imports.
Data Gaps and Policy Blind Spots
Dr. Posada’s research highlights the staggering gap between reported secondhand vehicle exports from the U.S. and the actual number of vehicles arriving in Mexico. Official export records significantly underreport flows, with actual imports, including unregistered vehicles, estimated to be up to 30 times higher than U.S. data suggests.
This lack of reliable trade data makes policy planning difficult and hides the scale of the end-of-life battery challenge. Dr. Posada and his team have modeled future battery waste flows into Mexico, revealing that by 2042, battery mass from imported secondhand EVs will exceed that from new EV sales.
This underscores the urgent need for bilateral cooperation on recycling infrastructure, battery tracking systems, and extended producer responsibility policies.
Recycling: Capacity Exists, Coordination Lags
The good news? Recycling technologies capable of recovering critical minerals, like lithium, nickel, and cobalt, from used EV batteries are commercially available and increasingly sophisticated. North America, China, and the EU all have growing industrial-scale capacity for battery recycling.
The challenge is aligning this technical capability with policy frameworks. Dr. Kendall points to the EU’s battery regulation as a model, mandating recycled content standards and comprehensive recovery targets. By contrast, the U.S. lacks any federal regulation requiring battery recycling.
Without policy, valuable materials risk being lost, either through export “leakage” or improper disposal in countries with insufficient infrastructure.
A Path Forward: Harmonized Trade and Recycling
To prevent a looming environmental and economic crisis, the experts recommend:
- Joint U.S.-Mexico policy frameworks for EV battery recycling and reuse
- Transparent trade data and harmonized reporting mechanisms
- Digital battery passports to track battery health and materials
- Incentives for recycling and second-life applications, particularly in underserved regions
- Right-to-repair legislation to support local servicing and reuse
As EV adoption accelerates worldwide, secondhand trade and responsible recycling must be viewed not as side issues, but as integral to a sustainable automotive future. The recycling sector, already adapting to the rise of lithium-ion technologies, now sits at the center of a global transformation.
The message from the UC Davis research team is clear: the time to act is now. Industry and governments must work together to ensure that the second life of EVs doesn’t become an afterthought, but a cornerstone of circular mobility.
Watch the webinar below:
