Higher Number of Cars Headed for Dismantling in the Netherlands

ARN reports that car dismantling volumes in the Netherlands are rising again, with more than 200,000 vehicles expected to be registered for dismantling this year. Using a proven forecasting model based on new car sales and key economic factors, ARN and its partners can plan capacity, manage material flows and maintain high recycling performance.

Stacked end-of-life cars in a scrapyard under a cloudy sky p — Image credit: Shutterstock

The Netherlands is seeing a clear rise in the number of cars being registered for dismantling this year. After several years of historically low registration figures with the RDW (Netherlands Vehicle Authority), ARN (Auto Recycling Netherlands) now expects that more than 200,000 vehicles will be registered for dismantling in 2025. For car dismantling companies, this means more end-of-life vehicles arriving at their sites and an increase in the volume of material they process.

According to ARN, this shift has important implications for the entire recycling chain, from dismantlers to processors handling specific material streams such as metals, plastics and glass.

Data-Driven Forecasting

To better anticipate these developments, ARN has developed a calculation model that predicts how many vehicles are likely to be dismantled in a given year. This tool enables ARN and its supply chain partners to prepare more effectively for upcoming material flows.

“Nearly 17,000 cars are currently being registered for dismantling every month,” says Minne Sandstra, data analyst at ARN. Based on the latest data, he expects the total number of dismantling registrations to exceed 200,000 this year, with the upward trend continuing. “Our model predicts that we’ll reach around 210,000 cars registered for dismantling next year,” Sandstra explains.

The model is built on a limited set of variables, with new car sales in specific model years—those now most commonly reaching end-of-life—being the most important. Economic indicators such as maintenance costs and unemployment levels are also factored into the forecasts.

“Adding more variables would make the model more complex and harder to interpret,” Sandstra notes. “We therefore focus on factors that have proven reliable in practice. Over the past three years, the model has performed well, with an average deviation of about four percent.” He is keen to see how the model will respond as the market evolves: “If the predictions continue to be accurate, there will be no need to adjust it.”

Strong Supply Chain for Sustainable Car Recycling

ARN works closely with more than two hundred partners across the recycling chain to ensure that end-of-life vehicles are processed in a sustainable way. At the end of a car’s life, owners can take their vehicle free of charge to an ARN-affiliated dismantling company in their region.

Thanks to this nationwide network and ARN’s coordination, over 98% of each dismantled car is now reused or recovered. This high recycling rate underlines ARN’s central role in making the Dutch automotive sector more circular and reducing its environmental impact.

Source www.arn.nl