Arata Abe, Professor at the Faculty of Global and Science Studies at Yamaguchi University, Japan, highlights the complexities in accurately estimating and comparing used vehicle exports. As global demand for affordable vehicles rises, the environmental impact and challenges in trade statistics underscore the need for better data and international cooperation to ensure sustainable practices.
The global economy’s expansion, particularly in emerging and developing countries, is driving increased automobile demand. This has led to the significant export of used cars from developed countries to these regions. Used vehicles, being more affordable than new ones, play a crucial role in motorizing these countries, thereby contributing to societal benefits and promoting resource efficiency through prolonged use.
However, this practice also has environmental repercussions. Prolonged use of low fuel-efficiency vehicles exacerbates air pollution and contributes to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, improper disposal of end-of-life vehicles in countries with inadequate waste management systems can lead to significant environmental hazards. Even if vehicles are recycled, inefficiencies in resource recovery diminish the potential benefits.
The global push towards decarbonization, particularly in developed countries, is accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). While this shift promotes environmental sustainability domestically, it devalues older internal combustion engine vehicles, potentially increasing their export. This paradoxically moves environmentally detrimental vehicles to other parts of the world, offsetting the environmental gains.
Addressing these negative aspects requires technical collaboration and institutional support from developed countries. In some cases, restricting exports might be beneficial. However, it is crucial for developed nations to fully understand the post-export trajectories of these vehicles and accurately map the global automotive resource cycle.
Challenges in Estimating Used Vehicle Exports
The volume of used vehicle exports from certain countries can be estimated using trade statistics, which rely on item codes associated with volumes. However, these figures are often inaccurate and fail to reflect the current global trade structure.
For instance, according to UNEP (2020), from 2015 to 2018, the European Union (EU) exported 7.5 million used vehicles, Japan 3.9 million, and the United States 2.6 million. However, these figures are derived from trade statistics that do not fully capture intra- EU distributions and are thus inflated for the EU.
A comparative study by Fuse, Kosaka, and Kashima (2009) offers a more refined estimation. Using the GTI database and UN statistics, they estimated that in 2005, Germany exported 1.25 million used cars, the US 1.21 million, and Japan 1.11 million, making up 63% of the global market. Other significant exporters included Belgium, France, and Spain.
To capture recent developments, we examined used vehicle export volumes from trade statistics for Japan, the US, and the EU from 2010 to 2019. Several issues emerged. UNEP’s figures overstate EU exports and do not fully account for intra-EU distribution. This paper aims to highlight the challenges in using trade statistics to accurately capture used vehicle exports.
Scope and Reliability of Trade Statistics
UNEP (2020) reported that from 2015 to 2018, the EU exported 7.5 million used vehicles, while Japan exported 3.9 million. However, our analysis of trade statistics shows a discrepancy. From 2015 to 2018, the EU (28 countries) exported 4.03 million used vehicles, while Japan exported 5.07 million. The discrepancy suggests that UNEP’s figures are inflated.
A closer look at trade statistics from 2010 to 2019 reveals that Japan exported 11.51 million used vehicles, the EU 10.79 million, the US 7.56 million, the UK 3.09 million, and South Korea 3.01 million. These figures indicate that Japan and the EU are comparable in size, contrary to UNEP’s findings.
However, the scope of items classified as used vehicles differs across countries. In Japan, for instance, six item codes are defined as used vehicles, compared to the broader classification in the US and EU. This variance complicates international comparisons.
Problems with EU Figures
EU trade statistics suffer from reliability issues. For instance, Germany’s annual report on vehicle recycling showed significant discrepancies between trade and re-registration statistics for used vehicle exports to EU member states. In 2017, Germany’s re-registration statistics indicated 1.99 million used vehicles exported to the EU, while trade statistics reported only 0.28 million units.
Additionally, trade statistics often record anomalous figures. In 2013, for example, France reportedly exported 13,666 used cargo vehicles to the Comoros Union, each weighing only 6.8 kg, an unrealistic figure. Adjusting for such anomalies is crucial for accurate data.
Implications and Recommendations
The inconsistencies in trade statistics necessitate careful adjustments and verification to avoid misinterpretation. For example, adjusting the UK’s figures for outliers revealed a significant reduction in the number of exported used vehicles.
Future research should focus on the export of electrified vehicles, including electric and hybrid cars. The item codes for these vehicles were established only in 2017, and comprehensive data is still lacking. As environmental regulations tighten, there is a risk that high-emission vehicles will be increasingly exported to countries with less stringent standards, a pattern not yet seen with electrified vehicles.
In conclusion, accurate international comparison of used vehicle exports is fraught with challenges, from inconsistent data classification to unreliable trade statistics. Addressing these issues is essential for informed policymaking and global environmental sustainability.
If you would like to learn more on this subject from Professor Arata Abe, please contact him via email at: a_abe@yamaguchi-u.ac.jp
