The Richest Feedstock in History Is Already on the Road, But Only Free Trade Can Unlock It

A growing wave of material-rich vehicles is set to boost ELV feedstock volumes and value, but realising this potential depends on open global markets. Robin Wiener warns that export restrictions risk oversupply, price volatility and reduced investment, undermining both recyclers and manufacturers despite strong long-term fundamentals.

Portrait of Robin Wiener, ReMA president, highlighting leadership in recycled materials and global trade policy in the auto recycling sector. — Robin Wiener

ReMA president Robin Wiener argues that the auto recycling sector is entering a golden era of material richness. The threat, she warns, isn’t supply; it’s the political forces closing off the markets that make recycling viable in the first place.

A richer vehicle fleet is reshaping future feedstock

The numbers tell a compelling story. There are 289 million vehicles on U.S. roads with an average age of 12.8 years. Around 13 million vehicles reach end of life every year, flowing through approximately 300 automobile shredders across the country. The U.S. automotive recycling rate sits at close to 99%. And yet, according to Robin K. Wiener, president of the Recycled Materials Association (ReMA), the best is still to come.

“The recycled material upgrade is baked in,” she says. “Your future feedstock gets richer every year.”

The reason is straightforward. As the U.S. vehicle fleet gradually transitions from internal combustion engines toward hybrids and battery electric vehicles, the volume of recoverable material per vehicle increases significantly. A conventional ICE vehicle contains roughly 1,580 lbs of steel, 380 lbs of aluminium and around 50 lbs of copper.

In a hybrid, you get more aluminium and copper, around 500 lbs and 88 lbs respectively, while the catalytic converter is still there. Step up to a full battery electric vehicle and those volumes rise again: steel reaches about 1,800 lbs, aluminium 650 lbs and copper roughly 180 lbs, with another 55 lbs or so of nickel added to the mix.

Plastics rise at every step, too, from 310 lbs in an ICE vehicle to 450 lbs in a BEV.

Wiener is keen to stress that the transition timeline in the U.S. differs from that in Europe. EV adoption has slowed, with hybrids currently leading the electrification charge. Major forecast revisions in 2025 saw the IEA cut its U.S. 2030 EV share projection by more than half. But for recyclers, the powertrain debate is almost beside the point. In any scenario, the total recycled material content per vehicle continues to rise. “Every powertrain shift increases recycled material content,” she notes. “Steel, aluminium, copper, plastics, battery minerals; it all goes up.”

There is also a crucial lag effect shaping the industry’s outlook. Vehicles currently entering U.S. shredders were built around 2011. Cars sold today won’t reach end-of-life until roughly 2037 to 2042. With median vehicle lifetimes of around 17 years for cars and up to 25 years for pickups, the material-rich vehicles rolling off production lines right now represent a future feedstock windfall already locked in. Steel from automotive alone accounts for around 22 million of the 50-60 million tons of steel recycled in the U.S. annually, and OEMs are actively seeking closed-loop partnerships to secure future supplies of recycled aluminium, copper and steel.

Why export markets are structurally essential

But here is where Wiener’s optimism becomes conditional, and her message sharpens considerably. None of this potential is realised without open access to global markets. ReMA represents more than 1,700 companies generating a $184 billion economic impact. The U.S. generates roughly 25% more recycled material than domestic manufacturers can consume, meaning exports aren’t a bonus; they are structurally essential. In any given year, between 20% and 30% of all U.S.-processed recycled material is sold to buyers in nearly 150 countries, with a value of $27.5 billion annually.

“Exports are not optional,” Wiener says, “600,000 jobs and 10,000-plus facilities depend on access to global markets.”

Restrict that access, and the consequences follow a well-documented cycle. Surplus material floods the domestic market, prices crash, investment contracts, capacity shrinks, and prices ultimately spike as supply tightens. The manufacturers that export controls were designed to protect end up worse off. “It’s a lose-lose situation,” she says. “The cycle harms everyone.”

Trade restrictions are emerging on both sides of the Atlantic

That cycle is precisely what Wiener fears is being set in motion on both sides of the Atlantic. In the U.S., the Trump administration’s sweeping import tariff regime, pushing average effective rates from around 2% at the start of 2025 to between 12% and 18% today, has created significant uncertainty for recyclers, not least because much of the specialised processing equipment the industry depends on is manufactured in Europe or Asia. More alarming still is the push for outright export controls on recycled materials.

ReMA successfully defeated proposed controls on recycled copper in mid-2025, but aluminium is now firmly in the crosshairs. Certain domestic aluminium consumers are lobbying for restrictions on exports of used beverage cans and other meltable scrap.

The argument being advanced is one of national security, with China cited as the primary concern. Wiener’s response is direct: the data simply doesn’t support it. China currently accounts for just 4% of U.S. recycled material imports. Some 87% of used beverage cans processed in the U.S. are consumed domestically. ReMA’s own aluminium availability study concludes that U.S. recycled aluminium supply exceeds domestic demand by a factor of four, and will continue to do so for at least the next 15 years. “There is no case for export controls,” she says.

China’s influence on the recycling trade goes beyond the national security debate. Wiener points to another issue: Beijing is trying to shape a new ISO standard for recycled steel, a move that could have real consequences for how ferrous scrap is traded internationally. ReMA, together with counterparts in Europe and other regions, is challenging that effort. But the wider message is clear: whoever sets the standards will help shape the market, and recyclers cannot afford to overlook that.

In Europe, Wiener sees a similar danger taking shape. The European Commission’s RESourceEU Action Plan, published in December 2025, commits Brussels to proposing export restrictions on recycled aluminium materials by Q2 2026, while European Aluminium has already suggested a 30% export duty. Copper and permanent magnets are also under review. For Wiener, the concern is not only the immediate market impact, but the precedent it could set. “If the EU restricts recycled material exports, it creates a precedent,” she warns. “Open trade serves recyclers and manufacturers on both sides of the Atlantic.”

Strong fundamentals, uncertain policy environment

The structural fundamentals for the auto recycling sector have rarely looked stronger. The feedstock is getting richer with every vehicle sold; manufacturers need the material, and the infrastructure exists to deliver it at scale. What remains genuinely uncertain is whether policymakers will allow the trade environment to support it.

“The U.S. and EU share a common interest,” Wiener concludes. “Open trade for recycled materials benefits our industries, our economies, and the environment.”